BJP-Shiv Sena tug of war: Maharashtra extends to hold suspense over the shape of the next government even though people of the state gave a clear mandate to the ruling coalition in the assembly election. Two alliances were in the struggle for power in Maharashtra, the BJP-Shiv Sena’s NDA and the NCP-Congress expressing the UPA.
- Shiv Sena and BJP have 161 MLAs in the newly elected Maharashtra Assembly
- If Shiv Sena aligns with NCP-Congress, the new alliance will have 154 MLAs
- BJP too has options of forming a government without Shiv Sena’s support
BJP-Shiv Sena tug of war, Now, post-election, it appears all the 4-major parties are calculating their moves independently, throwing out various possible compounds for gov formation. Each has its own set of choices before it.
It is the most vocal with the Big Four of Maharashtra politics, and the second-most populated group in the assembly. Shiv Sena won 56-seats in the Maharashtra Assembly polls seven less than 2014. But it has staked appeal to the Chief Minister’s Office, though on a rotational base.
The options before Shiv Sena for making government in Maharashtra are 2. 1. Shiv Sena may go with the BJP tarrying true to promise made to voters with or without its conditions of power-sharing accepted.
Secondly, it can join with the NCP-Congress. The NCP gained 54 seats while the Congress won 44. Both increased their tally over 2014, thereby gaining the explanation for pushing the BJP out of power if they join with the Shiv Sena. The 3-parties have 154 seats in the 288 members Maharashtra Assembly.
The Nationalist Congress Party of Sharad Pawar appeared as the real gainer from the Maharashtra Assembly election. Many, particularly those sensing a BJP sweep in Maharashtra, had written off Sharad Pawar and his NCP. But both got a good reply from the voters.
The NCP has 2-options to return to power in Maharashtra. It may join an alliance with the BJP burying the anger of the election campaign. This can quickly create over a telecom between Sharad Pawar & Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has openly addressed him as his political mentor. The BJP & the NCP have 159 MLAs in the latest assembly.
The other option play Maratha card join hands Shiv Sena taking the Congress cushion majority. The Congress would be happy to help to secure the BJP loses1 more state notwithstanding talk of Modi wave.
The Congress, too, has an extreme chance of returning to power. It has, anyway, never remained out of control for 2 following terms in Maharashtra before. It can have a vegetable with the Shiv Sena simultaneously with the NCP.
Here, it has 2-alternatives, if at all these changes. One benefit is to join a Shiv Sena-NCP government and claims victory for stealing another state under the nose of Narendra Modi-Amit Shah pair.
Secondly, Congress may play the kingmaker and declare outside support to a Shiv Sena-NCP government. This way, Congress may have power over the control levers of Maharashtra.
The BJP, which began as the single-largest party as 2014 but with reduced strength, too has a few alternatives. The straightforward option appears most outcome, strike a bargain Shiv Sena on giving, take principle form the gov for the 3rd time in Maharashtra.
The BJP has 105-seats 17 less than 2014, but an agreement with the Shiv Sena, they have 161-MLAs in the recently elected Maharashtra Assembly.
The 2nd option is to dump the Shiv Sena accusing it of blackmail after the alliance’s victory in the election & win over Sharad Pawar’s NCP. Sharad Pawar, in a comparable situation in 2014, had offered full support to the BJP for balance in Maharashtra. Sharad Pawar may still find that expression valid in return for a share in power for the NCP.
Thirdly, the BJP can do the unlikely to arrive at an arrangement with the Congress to shield the two parties with nationwide presence from blackmail by smaller parties with regional considerations and astronomical ambition.
The BJP and the Congress will have a strength of 149 MLAs in such a hitherto hypothetical alliance. A majority government in Maharashtra needs only 146 MLAs on the floor of the assembly.